The Halloween ticket barely moved. The calendar did.
The National Retail Federation's annual survey, conducted with Prosper Insights & Analytics, puts 2026 Halloween spending at $13.5 billion, just above last year's record $13.1 billion. That is a rounding-error raise, not a boom. The holiday kept its pandemic-era participation and then stretched into a season retailers already have to staff, set, and markdown.
Shoppers plan to spend $115.14 per person, versus $114.45 in 2025. Seventy-four percent of consumers plan to celebrate, in line with 73% last year and well above the 68% who planned to in 2019. The volume is the installed base. The change is when it shows up.
Forty-nine percent say they will start Halloween shopping in September or earlier, matching last year and up from 34% in 2016. Among those early shoppers, 42% say they are looking forward to fall and 34% call Halloween one of their favorite holidays. Value is in the mix: 23% bought early to spread out budgets, and 21% moved because prices and promotions were too good to pass up.
If prices run hot, the survey says 31% will comparison shop, 26% will hunt coupons or sales, and 34% will look for items they can reuse next year. Allison Zeller, NRF vice president of industry and consumer insights, said consumers are "approaching the season with affordability in mind." That is not a trade-down away from the holiday. It is a longer open-to-buy with a reuse bias.
The mix is still candy, décor, and costumes. Candy remains the most common purchase at 96% of shoppers and $4.1 billion in planned spend. Decorations follow at 78% and $4.3 billion. Costumes are 71% and $4.4 billion. Greeting cards ticked up to 42% from 38%, for $0.8 billion. Kids' costumes are a $1.5 billion slice; adult costumes $2 billion; pet costumes $0.92 billion.
Discount stores remain the top destination at 39%, ahead of specialty Halloween and costume stores at 32% and online at 27%. Local and small businesses are in the plan for 13% of shoppers, nearly double 7% in 2016. If you do not own a costume box, the traffic is still walking a discount aisle first.
Forty-seven percent of consumers are using AI tools for Halloween this year, mostly to brainstorm ideas (34%) or ask for recommendations during product research (32%). Phil Rist, Prosper's executive vice president of strategy, called AI an increasingly common part of the shopping journey. Treat that as a discovery channel you do not control, not a checkout button.
Retail Dive's same-day write-up of the survey made the operator point cleanly: shoppers are buying earlier to stretch budgets. NRF's earlier seasonal note already showed why sets keep moving up. Last year, nearly half of consumers started before October, and a quarter had already bought by early August.
The 2026 survey asked 7,889 consumers from Sept. 1 through Sept. 9, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 percentage points. If your Halloween set is still timed to the first October circular, you are late for half the demand. Put the value story on the endcap in September, keep reusable décor in stock past the first frost, and assume the idea for the costume started in a chat window.